Madoff was able to hide his scheme using a “serial correlation” reporting scheme. A serial correlation is a term used by MIT professor and hedge fund theorist Andrew Lo to describe the degree to which each month's returns in a fund mirror the results of the month before. Dr. Lo’s theory is that is a hedge fund has a nice smooth line in its rate of return every month. Upon close examination, any variation to the “smoothness” of the line constitutes a red flag, which should be look upon more carefully.
In the last year corporate finance departments, financial institutions, as well as public and private pension fund portfolios have already lost about 33% of their values due to overleveraged investment banks, the housing and credit crises. An effective, (no more than 1 to 3 weeks) and cost efficient proactive methodology to detect the Madoff effect in the hedge funds would be to apply the following methodology in the specified order to the relevant data available to you:
- Link Analysis – Use link analysis to determine in the network Madoff is categorized by, and create a subset of that network of hedge funds.
- Predictive Modeling – Use predictive modeling to create a score of all the hedge funds in your subset. Use Madoff’s variables as your training data.
- Clustering Analysis – Perform a cluster analysis which includes among other variables the predictive score. Since the predictive score is a multidimensional variable when used with one-dimensional or “flat” variables you will obtain a binocular vision (or binocular summation) of your analysis and increase by 1.4 times the ability to detect the serial correlation. See, Improving Search Engine Optimization by Incorporating Predictive Analytics at http://atomai.blogspot.com/2008/12/improving-search-engine-optimization-by.html
For verification of the analysis you could use the following factors:
- The reputation of the independent auditors of the hedge fund identified through this methodology;
- Control Chart using standard deviation of the yearly returns over a 3-5 year period (exclude the current year);
- The ratio of total number of employees to the total amount of investments.
Contact Alberto Roldan at firstname.lastname@example.org or Sean Suskind at email@example.com